A Systematic Review and Simulation

Bradley E. Belsher, PhD1,2; Derek J. Smolenski, PhD, MPH1; Larry D. Pruitt, PhD1; et al

Key Points

Question  Have advances in statistical modeling improved the predictive validity of suicide prediction algorithms sufficiently to render their predictions actionable?

Findings  In this systematic review of 17 studies including 64 unique suicide prediction models, the models had good overall classification and low positive predictive values. Use of these models would result in high false-positive rates and considerable false-negative rates if implemented in isolation.

Meaning  At present, the performance of suicide prediction models suggests that they offer limited practical utility in predicting suicide mortality.

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